Capital Flows
Global Macro Livestream
Tuesday, June 30, 2026
Capital Flows Daily Livestream
Streaming M-F 11:30 MST (1.5 hours before cash equity close)
Built for
Active risk takers who put real capital to work and want their book aligned with the biggest drivers in global markets.
Traders and allocators hunting asymmetric, home-run trades instead of nickel-and-diming basis points.
People who want their actions in sync with the macro regime so months of disciplined decisions don't get erased in a single week.
Especially if you...
Need to navigate recession risk, inflation shocks, macro liquidity, and credit cycle turns without guessing the narrative of the day.
Want a clear read on rates, FX, and US equities so you know when to press risk and when to get out of the way.
Make capital allocation decisions for yourself or others as a PM, CIO, prop trader, wealth manager, family office, or serious individual trader.
If you're responsible for risk, not just opinions, this is built for you.
Macro Livestream Format
Map the macro regime so you're on the right side of it, and isolate the few large, asymmetric bets that can become home-run trades.
Free Macro Playbook
Macro Flows From First Principles
What Actually Drives Markets
How The Structural Regime Is Developing
Filtering False Narratives And Institutional Bias
Reading The Daily Data In Regime Context
Global Capital Flows
Macro Regime
Positioning & Systematic Flows
Macro Liquidity
Credit Cycle
Cross-Border Flows
Growth · Inflation · Liquidity
Rates & FX
Equities
Market Microstructure
Option Flow
Momentum & Mean Reversion
A Complete Read On The Macro Backdrop
Clarity on the Macro Regime
AND
Conviction in Asymmetric Bets
Session Output
During the Livestream
Live Q&A
After the Livestream(20-Minute Read)
Proprietary Macro Flows & Positioning Report
Recording of the Private Session
Synthesized Transcript of the Private Session
THE SESSION AHEAD
What you'll walk away with
By the end of this session you'll be able to locate where capital sits on the equity risk curve, and read when money and real rates are about to push it up toward disruption or down toward safety.
First, see equities as a curve, not a category: a spectrum from cash-flows-now to long-duration disruption.
Then watch the frontier move: alpha migrates to wherever change is greatest, and in a levered system you cannot afford to be absent.
Finally, read the force that moves capital across the curve: the quantity of money and the real cost of money.
THE RISK CURVE
Equities Are a Curve, Not a Category
There is no single stock market. Capital arranges itself along a continuum of risk, from cash-flows-now at the bottom to long-duration disruption at the top.
The bottom of the curve: defensives, dividends, short-duration earnings. Paid now, low beta, low drama.
The top of the curve: speculative, long-duration, disruptive names. Paid in a future the market discounts heavily.
The slope between them is the risk premium, the extra return demanded to climb one notch higher.
That slope steepens and flattens as appetite shifts. The slope itself is the market's risk appetite, priced.
Gormsen & Lazarus 2023 'Duration-Driven Returns' · Stein 2013 'Overheating in Credit Markets' (reach-for-yield)
LOW RISK · PAID NOW HIGH RISK · PAID LATER
DEFENSIVE · CASH FLOWS NOW FRONTIER · LONG-DURATION DISRUPTION SLOPE / RISK PREMIUM
The Equity Risk Curve
Cash-flows-now → long-duration disruption
Capital Flows · The Curve
Curve Read
Slope (risk premium)
Capital above midpoint
State
Bottom line
Every stock is a seat on the risk curve. The slope is the price of climbing it.
Illustrative · mechanics not a forecast
Capital Flows Research
THE RISK CURVE
The curve, priced
High-beta vs low-volatility equities, rebased
Read it: when high-beta pulls away from low-volatility, capital is paying up to sit higher on the curve. The slope is steepening.
THE RISK CURVE
The curve has length
Long-duration growth vs near-term value, rebased
Read it: the gap between growth and value is the curve's vertical extent, how far the top sits above the bottom.
THE MOVING FRONTIER
The Top of the Curve Is Never the Same Names
Alpha does not sit still. It migrates to whatever is producing the most change and disruption, so the frontier of the curve constantly re-forms around new leaders.
Last cycle's leaders become this cycle's ballast. The names at the top rotate even as a top always exists.
All money has to sit somewhere, and cash is a decaying asset. Capital is forced up the curve to find real return.
Being absent from the frontier is itself a position, one that quietly bleeds while the leaders compound.
Leverage makes the scramble violent and reflexive: everyone needs the same seats at the same time.
Geanakoplos 2010 'The Leverage Cycle' · Schumpeter, creative destruction relocates where returns are made
INDUSTRIALS STAPLES UTILITIES HEALTHCARE MATERIALS LAST CYCLE BALLAST ENERGY SEMICONDUCTORS AI & CLOUD
LIVE
The Moving Frontier
Alpha migrates to maximum disruption
Capital Flows · The Frontier
Why Capital Is Forced In
Cash real returnBLEEDS
Has-to-be-somewhereBINDING
System leverage1.8x
Frontier Lock · live leader
Disruption score
Status
Disruption Intensity
Alpha relocates to maximum disruption — in a levered system you can't afford to be off the frontier.
Illustrative · mechanics not a forecast
Capital Flows Research
THE MOVING FRONTIER
Capital crowds the frontier
Cap-weight vs equal-weight S&P 500, rebased
Read it: when the cap-weighted index pulls away from the equal-weighted one, money is crowding into a narrow frontier. The seats are scarce.
THE MOVING FRONTIER
Leadership migrates
Sector leaders vs the broad market, rebased
Read it: energy led, then semiconductors took the baton and ran. The frontier's name changes, but a frontier always leads.
LIQUIDITY & THE CURVE
Liquidity Decides Where You Sit on the Curve
Changes in nominal and real purchasing power, the quantity of money and the real cost of money, are the force that pushes capital up and down the risk curve.
Nominal channel: more money in the system has to find a seat, and it pushes up the curve toward the frontier.
Real channel: falling real yields lift the value of distant cash flows, so the top of the curve re-rates the hardest.
Rising real yields run the move in reverse: long-duration disruption is crushed first as capital retreats to safety.
Leverage is the amplifier: because the system runs on borrowed money, marginal liquidity shifts move everything at once.
Modigliani & Cohn 1979 · Cohen, Polk & Vuolteenaho 2005, money illusion in real vs nominal discounting of equities
MONEY SUPPLY CASH FLOWS NOW FRONTIER LONG-DURATION DISRUPTION
Liquidity Moves the Curve
Nominal + real money push capital up and down
Capital Flows · Liquidity
Reserve Level
System Leverage
Liquidity Channels
Quantity of moneyEASING
Real cost of moneyFALLING
Capital on the curveCLIMBING
Curve Regime
Money in, capital climbs the curve. Money out, it retreats. Leverage makes the move violent.
Illustrative · mechanics not a forecast
Capital Flows Research
LIQUIDITY & THE CURVE
The real cost of money
10-year inflation-protected (real) yield
Read it: when the real yield fell below zero, capital climbed to the frontier; when it spiked above 2 percent, the frontier was repriced down.
LIQUIDITY & THE CURVE
The tide moves the curve
Central bank balance sheet vs high-risk equities, rebased to 100
Read it: when the central bank balance sheet exploded in 2020, high-risk equities exploded with it, and both rolled over at the 2022 liquidity peak. The tide sets where capital can sit on the curve.
Macro Livestream Format
Map the macro regime so you're on the right side of it, and isolate the few large, asymmetric bets that can become home-run trades.
Free Macro Playbook
Macro Flows From First Principles
What Actually Drives Markets
How The Structural Regime Is Developing
Filtering False Narratives And Institutional Bias
Reading The Daily Data In Regime Context
Global Capital Flows
Macro Regime
Positioning & Systematic Flows
Macro Liquidity
Credit Cycle
Cross-Border Flows
Growth · Inflation · Liquidity
Rates & FX
Equities
Market Microstructure
Option Flow
Momentum & Mean Reversion
A Complete Read On The Macro Backdrop
Clarity on the Macro Regime
AND
Conviction in Asymmetric Bets
Session Output
During the Livestream
Live Q&A
After the Livestream(20-Minute Read)
Proprietary Macro Flows & Positioning Report
Recording of the Private Session
Synthesized Transcript of the Private Session